Wednesday, January 26, 2011

War in Afghanistan

For all the talk about the war in Afghanistan, it is important to understand that there are actually three wars in Afghanistan.
The first war is the Humanitarian war. This is the war to create stability, democracy, greater women's rights, strong economy, etc. This is the most visible of the three wars.
The second war is the War on Terror war. This is the war that hits the Taliban and conducts raids and drone strikes into Pakistan. This war is less visible and only mentioned when there are casualties.
The third war is the Bases war. This is the firm staking out of military bases to increase US influence and leverage in Central Asia. This war is all but invisible to the media, as it is the most complex but the least interesting to the casual viewer.

The Humanitarian war has already been lost. As an attempt at enlightened Liberal Imperialism it has foundered upon intractable realities and has absorbed billions to little effect. This war will soon be abandoned, taking most of the media journalists with it.
The War on Terror war failed in its initial aim of eliminating the Taliban, thus paving the way for victory in the first war. It now only aims to weaken the Taliban in order to preserve an imperfect pro-western regime. This will be scaled down to a Special Forces and Drone war and will become far less visible.
The Bases war is so far a success. Remote bases are easy to defend and only require the permission of the host government, whoever they are. They can also project future power when necessary, and serve as bases for Special Forces, Intelligence assets and cash outflows to bribe warlords and, if necessary, Taliban to allow gas pipelines going west to be left in peace. They serve as a strategic bargaining chip in The Great Game with China, India and Russia. They will remain largely invisible to a public who don't really care where their troops are stationed in the world, provided they're not dying.
Idealistic aims will give way to realpolitik and the original 'War in Afghanistan' will be forgotten.

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